I have wanted to write but how do you write in the midst of chaos and collapse? Fascism, which I used to think about in terms of something that was coming, is here. We are watching a form of fascism install itself in the United States and it is terrifying.
It is immensely destabilizing to reach middle age and find yourself wondering whether you can type freely if you’ve always typed freely. I’ve always just said what I thought in private, but now I can foresee a future where that might be undesirable or even dangerous.
Since Trump has come into office less than three months ago, he has:
These are just the events and decisions that I can remember off the top of my head.
I grew up being told endlessly about how I lived next to the world’s longest undefended border. Recently, I have started wondering about that border. Are the Americans going to invade? Can the border be defended?
This is the context in which Canada’s federal election is being held. In January, when Justin Trudeau announced that he was going to resign, the Conservatives were riding high in the polls. Now the Liberals appear likely to win a majority on April 28. The change in voter sentiment has been incredible.
Since he became Conservative leader, Pierre Poilievre has promised to bring Trumpism-lite to Canada. The Conservative Party of Canada has deep links to other right-wing parties in the Anglosphere and is closely associated with the “freedom” convoy that laid siege to downtown Ottawa in 2022.
Poilievre has spent his entire time as Conservative leader calling for an election and for Trudeau to resign. In January, it seemed as if the stars were finally aligning. But as soon as Trudeau signalled that he was going to leave, the tide started to shift. That tide turned into a wave when Trump started talking about making Canada the 51st state.
Among non-Conservative voters, there is a lot of fear and the Liberals are the main beneficiaries of this fear. People who would not have voted Liberal six months ago are talking about how they are going to hold their noses and vote Liberal because they don’t want the Tories anywhere near power. People who do not generally support either of the two main parties and who live in ridings that the Conservatives do not have a chance of winning are talking about voting Liberal just in case or to push up the popular vote for the Liberal Party.
The Tory collapse in the polls has caused in-fighting, which had long been rumoured, to spill out into the open with weeks left in the campaign. Poilievre’s campaign attempted to suggest that the polls were not credible, but backed down after criticism from all sides. In an attempt to further tie the Tories to Trump, the Liberals idiotically planted stop the steal buttons at Conservative events despite the Liberal lead in the polls.
In addition to the effects of the tariff war and the threat of invasion, I worry about the effect of a close election. While the polls show that the Liberals are in the lead, it is clear that a sizable minority of Conservative voters may not accept another electoral defeat. What will happen if this election is close? What will happen if it isn’t?